The effects of Covid-19 on the performance of the shares of B3´s sectors
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.2021.60146Keywords:
B3, Covid-19, clusters, returns, traded quantityAbstract
This work has aimed at verifying the behavior of the productive sectors of B3 during the Covid-19 pandemic, considering the period from January 2nd to May 12th, 2020. This descriptive and quantitative research has analyzed the average monthly return and the traded quatities of 55 sectors. The techniques used in the data analysis were: cluster analysis, difference in differences, and the tests of randomness, normality, and serial correlation. It was concluded that Covid-19 affected the groups differently, one of which behaved as a market with weak efficiency. The study contributes as an empirical finding that the sectors that makeup B3 showed different behaviors in the face of the pandemic in the new coronavirus.
References
Al-Awadhi, A. M., Al-Saifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A., & Alhamadi, S. (2020). Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns. Journal of behavioral and experimental finance, 27, 100326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100326
Alfaro, L., Chari, A., Greenland, A. N., & Schott, P. K. (2020). (NBER). Aggregate and firm-level stock returns during pandemics in real time. NBER Working Paper, 26950. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26950
Almeida, A., & Ghirardi, A (1999). Estudo comparativo de modelos de gerenciamento de risco de mercado com uma carteira composta por ativos típicos de um fundo de ações. Anais do ENANPAD, Foz do Iguaçu, Brasil, 23.
Assaf, A., Neto. (2003). Mercado Financeiro (3 ed.). São Paulo: Atlas.
B3. (2020a). Setor de atuação. http://www.b3.com.br/pt_br/produtos-e-servicos/negociacao/renda-variavel/empresas-listadas.htm
B3. (2020b). Séries históricas. http://www.b3.com.br/pt_br/market-data-e-indices/servicos-de-dados/market-data/historico/mercado-a-vista/series-historicas/
B3. (2020c). B3 aciona o circuit breaker. http://www.b3.com.br/pt_br/noticias/circuit-breaker.htm
Bao, L., Li, T., Xia, X., Zhu, K., Li, H., & Yang, X. (2020). How does working from home affect developer productivity? - A case study of Baidu during Covid-19 pandemic. Empirical Software Engineering, preprint. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.13167.pdf
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K. J., Sammon, M. C., & Viratyosin, T. (2020). The unprecedented stock market impact of COVID-19. NBER Working Paper, 26945. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26945
Barbosa, J. D. S., Ribeiro, F., Consoni, S., Soares, R. O., & Frega, J. R. (2016). Impacto do fechamento da bolsa de valores de Nova York (NYSE) sobre o risco de mercado das empresas negociadas na BMFBovespa: um estudo sobre a ótica da interdependência entre mercados. Revista Ambiente Contábil, 8(1), 17-33. https://periodicos.ufrn.br/ambiente/article/view/6567/5987
Blundell, R., & Dias, M. C. (2009). Alternative approaches to evaluation in empirical microeconomics. Journal of Human Resources, 44(3), 565-640. https://muse.jhu.edu/article/466706/pdf
Bomfim, R. (2020). Mercado adia o sonho de retomar patamar do início de março. https://www.infomoney.com.br/mercados/ibovespa-frustra-apos-bater-100-mil-pontos-e-fecha-em-queda-com-temores-de-nova-quarentena-nos-eua/#:~:text=Fechamento-,Ibovespa%20frustra%20ap%C3%B3s%20bater%20100%20mil%20pontos%20e%20fecha%20em,de%20nova%20quarentena%20nos%20EUA&text=S%C3%83O%20PAULO%20%E2%80%93%20O%20Ibovespa%20fechou,acima%20dos%20100%20mil%20pontos.
Cardona-Arenas, C. D., & Serna-Gómez, H. M. (2020). COVID-19 and oil prices: Effects on the Colombian peso exchange rate. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3567942
Cartlidge, J. (2016). Towards adaptive ex ante circuit breakers in financial markets using human-algorithmic market studies. Proc 18th Int. Conf. Artif. Intell. (ICAI), Las Vegas, USA, 18.
Chong, O., Bany-Ariffin, A. N., Matemilola, B. T., & McGowan, C. B., Jr. (2020). Can China’s cross-sectional dispersion of stock returns influence the herding behaviour of traders in other local markets and China’s trading partners? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 65, 101168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2019.101168
Civitarese, J. (2020). Social distancing under epistemic distress. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3570298
Culyer, A. J., Newhouse, J. P., Pauly, M. V., McGuire, T. G., & Barros, P. P. (Eds.). (2000). Handbook of Health in Economics. Elsevier.
Dimri, V. (2020). A study on the weak form efficiency of chemicals sector in BSE. International Research Journal of Management Sociology & Humanity, 11(1), 64-73.
Ding, D., Guan, C., Chan, C.M.L., & Liu, W. (2020). Building stock market resilience through digital transformation: using Google trends to analyze the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. Frontier of Business Researc in China, 14, 21. https://doi.org/10.1186/s11782-020-00089-z
El-Basuony, H. (2020). Effect of COVID-19 on the Arab financial markets evidence from Egypt and KSA. IOSR Journal of Business and Management, 22(6), 14-21. https://doi.org/10.9790/487X-2206051421
Evans, M. J., & Rosenthal, J. S. (2004). Probability and statistics: The science of uncertainty. Macmillan.
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
Fama, E. F. (1991). Efficient capital markets: II. The Journal of Finance, 46(5), 1575-1617. https://doi.org/10.2307/2328565
Fórum Econômico Mundial. (2020). The Global Risks Reports 2020. Geneva. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf
Funakoshi, M., & Hartman, T. (2020). Mad March: How the stock market is being hit by COVID-19. World Economic Forum. Agenda. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/stock-market-volatility-coronavirus/
Fundação Getúlio Vargas. (2020). Covid-19 e mercado financeiro. https://fgvprojetos.fgv.br/sites/fgvprojetos.fgv.br/files/mercadofinanceiro_v07.pdf
Goodell, J. W., & Huynh, T. L. D. (2020). Did Congress trade ahead? Considering the reaction of US industries to COVID-19. Finance Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101578
Gormsen, N. J., & Koijen, R. S. J. (2020). Coronavirus: Impact on stock prices and growth expectations. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3555917
Halpin, B. (2016). Cluster analysis stopping rules in Stata. https://ulir.ul.ie/bitstream/handle/10344/5492/Halpin_2016_cluster.pdf?sequence=2
Hamilton, L. C. (2012). Statistics with Stata: version 12. Cengage Learning.
Haroon, O., & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2020). Flatten the curve and stock market liquidity–an inquiry into emerging economies. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2151-2161. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1785424
Heyden, K., & Heyden, T. (2020). Market reactions to the arrival and containment of COVID-19: An event study. Finance Research Letters, forthcoming. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3587497
Huo, X. & Qiu, Z. (2020). How does China’s Stock Market React to the Announcement of the COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3594062
Jolliffe, I. T., & Cadima, J. (2016). Principal component analysis: a review and recent developments. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 374(2065), 20150202. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2015.0202
Kannan, S. P. A. S., Ali, P. S. S., Sheeza, A., & Hemalatha, K. (2020). COVID-19 (Novel Coronavirus 2019) – recent trends. Eur. Rev. Med. Pharmacol. Sci, 24(4), 2006-2011. https://www.europeanreview.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2006-2011.pdf
Kartal, M. T., Depren, Ö., & Depren, S. K. (2020). The determinants of main stock exchange index changes in emerging countries: evidence from Turkey in COVID-19 pandemic age. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3659154
Linden, A. (2013). Svysampsi: Stata module for estimating sample size for surveys with a dichotomous outcome variable. http://www.lindenconsulting.org
Liu, H., Manzoor, A., Wang, C., Zhang, L., & Manzoor, Z. (2020). The COVID-19 outbreak and affected countries stock markets response. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(8), 2800. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082800
Lloyd, C., Prezioso, G., Emigholtz, C., Wintering, J., & Lightbourne, J. (2020). COVID-19: a brief guide to circuit breakers and powers close the market. Alert Memorandum. Clearry Gottlieb Dteen & Hamilton LLP. https://www.clearygottlieb.com/-/media/files/alert-memos-2020/2020_03_20-covid19--a-brief-guide-to-circuit-breakers-and-powers-to-close-the-market-pdf.pdf
Loureiro, C. M. C., Serra, J. P. C., Loureiro, B. M. C., de Souza, T. D. M., Góes, T. M., Neto, J. D. S. A., ... & Marinho, J. M. (2020). Alterações pulmonares na COVID-19. Revista Científica Hospital Santa Izabel, 4(2), 89-99. https://doi.org/10.35753/rchsi.v4i2.175
Ma, C., Rogers, J. H., & Zhou, S. (2020). Global economic and financial effects of 21st Century pandemics and epidemics. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3565646
Martin, I. W. R., & Wagner, C. (2019). What is the expected return on a stock. The Journal of Finance, (74)4, 1887-1929. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12778
Mehmetoglu, M., & Jakobsen, T. G. (2016). Applied statistics using Stata: a guide for the social sciences. Sage.
Moffatt, P. G. (2015). Experimetrics: Econometrics for experimental economics. Macmillan International Higher Education.
Okorie, D. I., & Lin, B. (2020). Stock markets and the COVID-19 fractal contagion effects. Finance Research Letters, 101640. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101640
Organização Mundial da Saúde. (2020a). Dados atualizados sobre a Covid-19. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-they-happen.
Organização Mundial da Saúde. (2020b). Declaração da Covid-19 como pandemia. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19
Pagano, M., Wagner, C., & Zechner, J. (2020a). Covid-19, asset prices, and the Great Reallocation. Voxeu/CEPR. https://voxeu.org/article/covid-19-asset-prices-and-great-reallocation.
Pagano, M., Wagner, C., & Zechner, J. (2020b). Disaster resilience and asset prices. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3603666
Pevalin, D., & Karen, P. D. J. R. (2009). The Stata survival manual. McGraw-Hill Education (UK).
Rabelo, T. S., Jr., & Ikeda, R. H. (2004). Mercados eficientes e arbitragem: um estudo sob o enfoque das finanças comportamentais. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 15(34), 97-107. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1519-70772004000100007
Ramelli, S., & Wagner, A. F. (2020). Feverish stock price reactions to COVID-19. Review of Corporate Finance Studies, forthcoming. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550274
Remler, D. K., & Van Ryzin, G. G. (2014). Research methods in practice: Strategies for description and causation. Sage Publications.
Ritchie, H., Ortiz-Espina, E., Beltekian, D., Mathieu, E., Hasell, J., Macdonald, B., Giattino, C., & Roser, M. (2020). Global comparison: where are confirmed deaths increasing most rapidly? https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
Ross, S. A., Westerfield, R. W., & Jaffe, J. F. (2012). Corporate finance. McGraw-Hill Higher Education.
Ruan, C., Liu, J., & Liu. G. (2019). Circuit breakers and market quality: evidence from China. International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research, 4(5), 3597-3604. https://ijsser.org/files_2019/ijsser_04__271.pdf
Seven, U., & Yilmaz, F. (2020). World Equity Markets and COVID-19: Immediate Response and Recovery Prospects. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/100987/1/MPRA_paper_100987.pdf
Smaniotto, E., & Zani, J. (2020). Circuit Breakers and Volatility: Evidence from High Frequency Data on Brazilian Stock Exchange. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Emanuelle_Smaniotto2/publication/342014244_Circuit_Breakers_and_Volatility_Evidence_from_High_Frequency_Data_on_Brazilian_Stock_Exchange/links/5ede9d1c92851cf1386becbf/Circuit-Breakers-and-Volatility-Evidence-from-High-Frequency-Data-on-Brazilian-Stock-Exchange.pdf
Villa, J.M. (2016). Diff: Simplifying the estimation of difference-in-differences treatment effects. Stata Journal, 16, 52-71. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43943/1/MPRA_paper_43943.pdf
Voglino, E. (2020). As 20 ações que mais caíram na bolsa com o coronavírus (até agora). https://comoinvestir.thecap.com.br/acoes-que-mais-cairam-coronavirus-marco-2020/
Yang, Y. H., Shao, Y. H., Shao, H. L., & Stanley, H. E. (2019). Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 523, 734-746. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.02.056
Zhang, D., Hu, M., & Ji, Q. (2020). Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19. Finance Research Letters, 36, 101528. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101528
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The authors, while doing the submission, accept the notice below:
We authors hold the copyright related to our paper and transfer Contextus journal the right for the first publication with a Creative Commons’ international license of the modality Attribution – Non-commercial 4.0, which in turn allows the paper to be shared providing that both the authorship and the journal’s right for initial release are acknowledged.
Furthermore, we are aware of our permission to take part in additional contracts independently for non-exclusive distribution of the version of our work published in this journal (e.g. publishing it in an institutional repository or as a book chapter), while acknowledging both the authorship and the journal’s initial publication.
We also certify that the paper is original and up to this date has not been released in any other journal, Brazilian or of another nationality, either in Portuguese or another language, as well as it has not been sent for simultaneous publication in other journals.
Last, we not only know that plagiarism is not tolerated by Contextus but also certify the paper presents the sources of passages from cited works, including those authored by ourselves.